HINDSIGHT BIAS EXAMPLE SERIES

People can easily explain the success of other previous innovations, but in advance, other cognitive biases like loss aversion will make people less likely to want to try out ideas which are different from what has previously worked.

HINDSIGHT BIAS EXAMPLE SERIES

One danger of the hindsight bias is that people end up ignoring the impact of luck or external factors in the outcome, and instead remember the events in history as if they happened as a series of logical steps.ДЄs you can imagine, this has a large impact on peopleвЂ™s ability to make decisions, especially when it comes to predicting the outcome of unpredictable ideas and innovations which are yet unproven. Of course that happened, itвЂ™s obvious, all the evidence pointed to it. I knew that was going to happen the whole time. The classic examples of something someone with hindsight bias would say are: It actually changes the memories of what people remember happening in the past when they first encountered.It distorts peopleвЂ™s perception of how well they can accurately predict future events (based on what has previously happened).Or to put it another way, that people remember accurately predicting something would happen before it did, even if at the time they didnвЂ™t predict it. There is also a very interesting cognitive bias known as the Hindsight Bias, which is the tendency for people to perceive past events as having been more predictable than they actually were. The phrase Hindsight is 20/20 usually refers to the fact that it is usually easier to analyse and evaluate events after they have already happened, rather than when youвЂ™re in the middle of them.

Hindsight bias example